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2016 Round 13 : Overs/Unders Update I

Again this week we find ourselves late on a Wednesday night waiting for the TAB to post a single Overs/Unders market, this time on the Swans v Dees game.

In the meantime, our Overs/Unders Fund has decided that it very much likes the look of the Dogs v Cats, and Dons v Giants matchups, in both of which it's opted to make its standard wager on the Unders, MoSSBODS having decreed that the expected total on these games is at least 12 points below the posted aggregate.

In fact, as you can see from the table above, MoSSBODS has a decidedly different view of the likely score in those two games, reckoning that the final total will be 3 to 5 goals less than the TAB is suggesting.

In the three other games for which markets have been posted, MoSSBODS' opinions are such that, albeit only barely, no wagers are warranted.

On a team-by-team basis, this week three teams are projected to score more than two goals fewer than the TAB markets imply, GWS expected to score 4.5 goals fewer, and West Coast and the Western Bulldogs expected to score about 2.5 goals fewer.

Just one team is expected to score more by MoSSBODS than by the TAB: the Brisbane Lions, who MoSSBODS expects to score about 0.5 goals more.