The MoS twins are slightly more optimistic about the likely scoring in the upcoming Preliminary Finals, but only by about a goal.

Regular readers might recall that, last week, I explained the intricacies of how the MoS twins come up with Venue Performance Values (VPVs), which are their versions of Home Ground Advantage.

Geelong still heads both MoS Team Rating Systems this week, and now has a 2.5 Scoring Shot lead over Brisbane Lions on MoSSBODS, and a 2.8 point lead over Port Adelaide on MoSHBODS.

On MoSSBODS now, just under 3 Scoring Shots separate 1st from 4th, while on MoSHBODS the gap is just under 4 points.

MoSHPlay_Marg, in tipping both winners this week, moved three tips clear of MoSHBODS_Marg and so, with just three games still to be played in the 2020 season, is guaranteed at least a share of the final title.

With only MoSHBODS_Marg and MoSSBODS_Marg offering contrarian tips this week and with both games being won by the favourite, the all-Tipster average for the week came in at 1.8 from 2.

MoSHPlay has the Tigers winning by just over 4 goals in the Friday night Semi Final.

The MoS twins roughly agree with the bookmakers about the likely total scores in the two Semi Finals, but not entirely about how those totals will be apportioned to the teams in each game.

Both MoS Team Rating Systems have parameters that determine how Venue Performance Values (VPV) are estimated.

Geelong’s superior scoring shot production to Port Adelaide was enough to propel it back into the lead on both MoS Team Rating System this week, though its lead over Brisbane Lions is just 0.3 Scoring Shots on MoSSBODS, and over Richmond is less than one-tenth of a point on MoSHBODS.

On MoSSBODS now, just 0.7 Scoring Shots separates 1st from 4th, while on MoSHBODS the gap is just 1.6 points. You can proverbially throw a blanket over the Cats, Lions, Tigers, and Power under both Systems.

Tipping winners proved hard this week for the Head-to-Head Tipsters, with only Home Sweet Home and Consult The Ladder doing better than chance. MoSHPlay_Marg managed just 1 from 4, which saw its lead over MoSHBODS_Marg pared to two.

The all-Tipster average for the week came in at 1.4 from 4.

MoSHPlay is tipping a narrow Cats win in Thursday’s game.

The MoS twins’ treat Finals a little differently than regular home-and-away games - mostly in how they estimate Venue Performance Values (VPVs) - which this week has produced Totals forecasts that are higher than the bookmakers’ in three of the four games.

To me, it’s slightly amazing that we’ve got here, but we are now on the brink of the Finals series and, though they’re still a week away, I’ve chosen to lock-in the MoS models today.

Just 0.9 Scoring Shots and two points separate 1st from 4th on the two MoS Team Rating Leaderboards as we enter the Finals, and only just over six Scoring Shots and just under 20 points separates the highest from the lowest-rated finalist.

MoSHPlay_Marg tipped the card this week, and with just nine games to play to complete the season, will be very hard to catch on the Head-to-Head Tipsters’ Leaderboard, which it still leads by three tips from MoSHBODS_Marg.

The all-Tipster average for the week came in at 7.8 from 9, with only Home Sweet Home bagging fewer than eight correct tips.

t’s not exactly a secret (if you’ve been following the narrative) that the MoS twins don’t care much, relatively speaking, for the Eagles, so it’s not entirely surprising that MoSHPlay might only have them defeating the Roos by only just over 3 goals.

We’ve been spoiled with a full board of Totals markets, the details of which appear below.

With a few exceptions, the Total forecasts of the MoS twins align with those of the bookmakers (who are of one voice this week, perhaps because the TAB and Sportsbet are taking their cues from the same place).

This season, for lots of reasons, has felt like a very long one, but we have at last come to the final home-and-away round (as silly as that descriptor for the weekly games continues to be this year).

Only three games this week are expected to be decided by less than 2 goals, and only two more by less than 3 goals, in what might otherwise be seen as a not particularly entertaining round were it not for the impact that most games can potentially have on the makeup and ordering of the finalists.

It’s very tight at the top of the MoSSBODS Leaderboard now, with the Top 3 separated by just 0.2 Scoring Shots, and the Top 6 by 2.2 Scoring Shots. Richmond now heads that Leaderboard after climbing three places in Round 17 and deposing Geelong.

Things were a little more stable on MoSHBODS, with Geelong and Richmond maintaining 1st and 2nd place respectively, although Port Adelaide did sneak into 3rd place.

MoSHPlay_Marg tipped the winner in 6 of the 9 contests this week, which was enough to extend its lead on the Head-to-Head Tipsters’ Leaderboard to three tips over Bookie Knows Best, RSMP_Simple, and, now, MoSHBODS_Marg.

MoSHPlay has the Tigers by 2 for the Friday game.