MoSHPlay, like its MoS siblings, is going contrarian in the Hawks v Dons game, albeit a little less enthusiastically, and is also landing on the Tigers’ side.

Only three of the eight markets are up at the bookmakers’, so there’s no a lot of comparing to do other than to say, for the markets that we do have, the MoS twins are roughly in agreement with the bookmakers.

There are only eight games this week, but seven of them have expected margins below 10 points, which has left plenty of room for even the more usually sensible forecasters to lob in a contrarian tip (or four).

Geelong still heads both MoS Team Rating Systems, but there’s now agreement about the ranking of only one other team in the Top 8, and that’s about Brisbane Lions, who both Systems rank 4th.

MoSSBODS has Port Adelaide in 2nd and Richmond in 3rd, while MoSHBODS has those same two teams in those spots but in the opposite order.

MoSHPlay_Marg tipped all nine winners this week to go to a four tip lead on the Head-to-Head Tipsters Leaderboard, though all but Home Sweet Home tipped eight from nine, so there wasn’t a lot of movement.

MoSHPlay is going out on something of a limb and tipping the Blues by 22 in tomorrow night’s game.

This week’s theme seems to be one of general agreement between MoS models and the bookmakers, and we see that playing out also when we turn to forecasts of team scoring.

Only three games this week are expected to be decided by less than two goals, while four are expected to have a winning margin of greater than three goals, so we might see some increase in the season’s average winning margin, which currently stands at just 27.1 points per game.

Geelong now heads both MoS Team Rating Systems, and with something of a gap, though there’s debate about the ordering of the next five teams. MoSSBODS prefers Port Adelaide for 2nd, and Brisbane Lions for 3rd, while MoSHBODS has Richmond in 2nd, and Port Adelaide in 3rd.

If any of your friends or colleagues build statistical models for a living and pretend that they don’t hurt when their preferred models let them down, I’ll let you in on a secret: they’re lying, it hurts, and quite a bit.

The final two Totals markets have now been posted and are included in the table below.

It’s (still) GWS by 25 tonight, according to MoSHPlay, and now Geelong by 1 point in tomorrow’s game.

New leaders on both Systems this week, as Port Adelaide rockets up 4 spots on MossBODS to retake top spot their, and Geelong climbs two spots on MoSHBODS to claim top spot under that System.

MoSSBODS has Geelong in 2nd, and Brisbane Lions in 3rd, while MoSHBODS has Port Adelaide and Richmond in those places.

Just seven of the nine games have Totals markets at this point, and these are shown below.

All of the line and head-to-head markets have now been posted, which means we can finalise tips and wagers (except over/under) for all nine games.

Here’s what the forecasts look like.

It’s far too late at night and early in the morning to be fully cogent, so let’s just get straight into the forecasts that we have, given that markets for some of the later games are not yet posted.

In the end, it was a pretty easy round to tip winners, and with relatively few contrarian tips, that meant (with the draw) we finished with Head-to-Head Tipsters recording either 5.5 or 6.5 from 8.

MoSHPlay is, relatively speaking, very keen about the Cats’ and the Hawks’ chances.

With markets now available for all of the games, we’re able to finalise the round’s tips and wagers for everyone except MoSHPlay.

When Ratings are compressed, it doesn’t take much to see teams move multiple places, and this week saw There’s major upheaval again at the top of the MoS Team Ratings, with Richmond now holding 1st on both Systems, ahead of Collingwood and Port Adelaide on MoSSBODS, and ahead of Port Adelaide and Geelong on MoSHBODS.