As was the case last weekend, there’s agreement in the broad but disagreement in the detail when you look at the MoS twins’ and the bookmakers’ score forecasts this week, with all four expecting an average score per game of around 123 points, but differences in specific games again as large as two goals.
Read MoreIn what seems likely to be another challenging round in which to tip winners, the TAB Bookmaker has posted single-digit lines for five of the games, and sub 3 goal lines for the other four. The average expected margin is therefore only 8.1 points per game.
Read MorePort Adelaide still clings to top spot on MoSSBODS, but now lies 2nd to Collingwood on MoSHBODS after a round in which neither of the Systems felt Port did enough against the Giants to maintain their previous Rating.
Collingwood did, however, rise by one spot on MoSSBODS, and is now in 2nd there, ahead of the Lions.
Read MoreIt’s been a long time since Home Sweet Home sat atop the Head-to-Head Tipster Leaderboard, but that it does this week after bagging a perfect 9 from 9 in the week where no team was actually playing at home for the first time in almost 60 years.
Read MoreMoSHPlay has the Lions by 2 points for tomorrow night’s game.
Read MoreThere’s agreement in the broad but disagreement in the detail when you look at the MoS twins’ and the bookmakers’ score forecasts this week, with all four expecting an average score per game in the 123 to 125 points range, but differences in specific games as large as two goals.
Read MoreSeven of this week’s nine games are expected by the bookmakers to be won by less than two goals, and the only thing dragging the all-game average up to 9.9 points per game is the relatively comfortable, five goalish victory that the Eagles are expected to record.
Read MorePort Adelaide still tops both MoS Systems, though now trailed by Brisbane Lions and Collingwood on MoSSBODS and the same two teams, but in the opposite order, on MoSHBODS.
The Bottom 2 on both Systems remain Gold Coast and Adelaide.
Read MoreThis week, tipping winners was a little easier than last week, but tipping margins was considerably harder.
Read MoreMoSHPlay pretty much going with the crowd at this point for tomorrow night’s Blues v Saints clash. Saints by 4.
Read MoreThe bookmakers appear to have come around to the MoS way of thinking, at least as far as totals are concerned, and have produced per game averages remarkably similar to our own.
Read MoreIt’s not often I wake up on a Monday and discover that the preparation I’d done the night before has been wasted because the games my models had forecasted are no longer the games being played.
But that, in a proverbial nutshell, is 2020.
Read MorePort Adelaide now tops, and Adelaide tails, both MoS Team Rating Systems.
In fact, the two Systems now have the same Top 3 and Bottom 4 teams, and disagree about the rest by no more than two places - and the difference is even that large only for Carlton, who are 7th on MoSSBODS and 9th on MoSHBODS.
Read MoreNotwithstanding the 25% reduction in game length, which should logically lessen the likelihood of huge forecasting errors, sub-16 mean absolute errors (MAEs) are something to behold.
Read MoreMoSHPlay has it as Sydney by 4 for the Thursday night game
Read MoreWe’ve markets now for the Essendon v Carlton game and, as a result, have our first overs bet for the season. The overlay is just 7 points so we’ll be hoping that the forecast absence of rain is accurate.
So, with the Dons v Blues game now firmly on, and head-to-head and line markets now posted by the bookmakers, we can include that Saturday game in the mix.
The forecasts are as below and show the MoS twins both opting for the underdog Blues, and single-digit margins predictions across the board.
Read MoreLast week was another good one for MoS score forecasts, with the twins’ generally more pessimistic views about the level of scoring tending to prevail overall. This week the twins are, again, on average forecasting lower totals than the bookmakers.
Read MoreWith 26 games now played and a relatively low-scoring Round 3, the average score per team per game now stands at just over 65 points, which is just under 81% of the 80.4 points average for the 2019 home and season.
So, for now, the 80% adjustment to all forecasts stays in force.
Read MorePort Adelaide did just enough to retain its number 1 ranking on MoSSBODS this week, but not quite enough to do the same on MoSHBODS where Collingwood now hold down top spot.
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