Simulating the Finals for 2013 : Pre-Week 2

At this stage of the season it's apparent that MARS rates the Swans and the Cats more highly than does the TAB Bookmaker, partly because MARS is less sensitive/susceptible (you choose which) to short-term fluctuations in team form. As a result, the latest round of Finals Simulations reflect, on average, better outcomes for these teams.

The matrix of team versus team probabilities that I'm using for these Simulations is as follows:

(Based on current market prices, the TAB Bookmaker rates the Swans as about 70% chances to defeat the Blues, and the Cats as about 75% chances to end Port Adelaide's season this weekend.)

Applying those probabilities to the five games that remain in the season yields these summary outputs for each team:

Comparing the outputs shown here with current market prices on TAB Sportsbet for Winning the Flag and for Making the Grand Final, the only value wagers appear to be for Hawthorn to win the Flag, which at $2.25 has an estimated edge of over 25%; for Hawthorn to make the Grand Final, which at $1.65 has an estimated edge of over 20%; and for the Swans to make the Grand Final, which at $3.50 has an estimated edge of just under 15%.

As usual, for the purposes of notional wagering, assume we're making a 1 unit wager on all three of these identified opportunities

Lastly, looking at the likelihood of all possible Grand Final pairings, the Simulations offer the view that follows below and to the right.

At current prices - odd as they are - only the first two of those pairings is worth a idle wager.

A Hawthorn v Fremantle Grand Final, which the Simulations rate at just under an even-money chance, is currently priced at $2.56, at which price it offers an edge of a little over 15%.

The Hawks v Swans pairing represents an even better bet according to the Simulations. Priced at $5.78 and with an estimated probability of almost 24%, this pairing has an estimated edge of almost 40%.